Fiorentina vs Juventus prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Juventus 2.41 - Fiorentina 1.13. Juventus is favored with a 65.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.5..
Juventus
2.41
Projected Goals
VS
3.5 total
Fiorentina
1.13
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
JuventusDrawFiorentina
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 81.2% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fiorentina
0.41.11.9
Juventus
1.62.43.2
Projected
Juventus 2.41 — Fiorentina 1.13
Actual
Juventus 0 — Fiorentina 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Juventus2.36
Fiorentina1.13
22.9Shots15.3
8.9On Target5.1
6.4Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
98.0%
Over 1.5
88.0%
Over 2.5
55.3%
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
BTTS
51.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.0%
2-1
10.1%
2-0
9.5%
1-0
9.2%
3-1
6.5%
Match Context
SERHigh
Juventus
1.34
Draw
5.45
Fiorentina
9.22
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Juventus 65.6%
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Total
3.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →