Fulham vs Arsenal prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Arsenal 1.84 - Fulham 1.09. Arsenal is favored with a 70.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
Arsenal
1.84
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Fulham
1.09
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
ArsenalDrawFulham
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Fulham
0.31.11.9
Arsenal
1.11.82.6
Projected
Arsenal 1.84 — Fulham 1.09
Actual
Arsenal 3 — Fulham 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Arsenal1.81
Fulham1.06
16.3Shots13.6
6.5On Target4.6
5.7Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.9%
Over 1.5
79.8%
Over 2.5
50.1%
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 2.5
49.9%
BTTS
31.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.6%
2-1
10.0%
2-0
8.8%
1-0
8.6%
3-1
6.2%
Match Context
EPLHigh
Arsenal
1.16
Draw
7.17
Fulham
27.02
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arsenal 70.3%
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Total
2.9
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →