Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Fiorentina 1.89 - Genoa 1.29. Fiorentina is favored with a 56.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.2..
Fiorentina
1.89
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
Genoa
1.29
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
FiorentinaDrawGenoa
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Genoa
0.51.32.1
Fiorentina
1.11.92.7
Projected
Fiorentina 1.89 — Genoa 1.29
Actual
Fiorentina 0 — Genoa 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Fiorentina1.16
Genoa0.60
29.7Shots14.0
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.3%
Over 1.5
83.4%
Over 2.5
49.5%
Over 3.5
39.7%
Under 2.5
50.5%
BTTS
66.0%
Match Context
SERMedium
Fiorentina
2.39
Draw
2.46
Genoa
4.40
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fiorentina 56.4%
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Total
3.2
+147.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →