Genoa vs Lecce prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Lecce 1.44 - Genoa 1.34. Lecce is favored with a 50.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
Lecce
1.44
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Genoa
1.34
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
LecceDrawGenoa
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.4% (1,114 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Genoa
0.61.32.1
Lecce
0.71.42.2
Projected
Lecce 1.44 — Genoa 1.34
Actual
Lecce 1 — Genoa 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Lecce1.44
Genoa1.30
16.0Shots15.0
5.8On Target5.3
5.4Corners5.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.1%
Over 1.5
75.8%
Over 2.5
53.9%
Over 3.5
51.5%
Under 2.5
46.1%
BTTS
50.1%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
14.0%
0-1
11.2%
0-0
10.7%
1-0
10.1%
1-2
8.0%
Match Context
SERCritical
Lecce
1.87
Draw
3.44
Genoa
4.88
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lecce 50.4%
--
Total
2.8
+21.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →