Genoa vs Lecce prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Lecce 1.44 - Genoa 1.34. Lecce is favored with a 50.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
Lecce
1.44
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Genoa
1.34
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
LecceDrawGenoa
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (1,081 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Genoa
0.61.32.1
Lecce
0.71.42.2
Projected
Lecce 1.44 — Genoa 1.34
Actual
Lecce 1 — Genoa 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Lecce1.44
Genoa1.30
16.0Shots15.0
5.8On Target5.3
5.4Corners5.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.1%
Over 1.5
75.8%
Over 2.5
53.9%
Over 3.5
51.5%
Under 2.5
46.1%
BTTS
50.1%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
14.0%
0-1
11.2%
0-0
10.7%
1-0
10.1%
1-2
8.0%
Match Context
SERCritical
Lecce
1.87
Draw
3.44
Genoa
4.88
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lecce 50.4%
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Total
2.8
+21.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →