Girona vs Atlético Madrid prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Atlético Madrid 2.02 - Girona 1.24. Atlético Madrid is favored with a 52.8% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
Atlético Madrid
2.02
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Girona
1.24
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Atlético MadridDrawGirona
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.1% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Girona
0.51.22.0
Atlético Madrid
1.22.02.8
Projected
Atlético Madrid 2.02 — Girona 1.24
Actual
Atlético Madrid 1 — Girona 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlético Madrid1.99
Girona1.22
17.9Shots14.7
7.1On Target5.1
5.7Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.7%
Over 1.5
84.3%
Over 2.5
54.9%
Over 3.5
52.8%
Under 2.5
45.1%
BTTS
51.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.7%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
6.2%
Match Context
LALMedium
Atlético Madrid
1.85
Draw
3.92
Girona
4.36
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Atlético Madrid 52.8%
--
Total
3.3
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →