FINAL: CA Osasuna 1 — Girona 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CA Osasuna 1.7 - Girona 1.3 (Girona at 34.4% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
CA Osasuna
1.7
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Girona
1.3
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
CA OsasunaDrawGirona
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 88.9% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Girona
0.51.32.1
CA Osasuna
0.91.72.5
Projected
CA Osasuna 1.7 — Girona 1.3
Actual
CA Osasuna 1 — Girona 0
Pick Results
OVER 2.5totalLOSS-1.00u
Expected Goals (xG)
CA Osasuna1.72
Girona1.28
16.9Shots13.9
6.5On Target5.1
5.7Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.8%
Over 1.5
80.8%
Over 2.5
52.3%
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 2.5
47.7%
BTTS
43.1%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
9.1%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.1%
Match Context
LALMedium
CA Osasuna
2.77
Draw
1.98
Girona
5.23
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Girona 34.4%
--
Total
3.0
+79.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →