FINAL: Atalanta BC 1 — Hellas Verona 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Atalanta BC 1.89 - Hellas Verona 1.09 (Atalanta BC at 67.7% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
Atalanta BC
1.89
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Hellas Verona
1.09
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Atalanta BCDrawHellas Verona
Hellas Verona L5Atalanta BC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 88.9% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hellas Verona
0.31.11.9
Atalanta BC
1.11.92.7
Projected
Atalanta BC 1.89 — Hellas Verona 1.09
Actual
Atalanta BC 1 — Hellas Verona 0
Pick Results
OVER 2.5totalLOSS-1.00u
Expected Goals (xG)
Atalanta BC1.87
Hellas Verona1.07
17.6Shots12.3
6.9On Target4.4
5.6Corners5.1
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.9%
Over 1.5
80.9%
Over 2.5
29.7%
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 2.5
70.3%
BTTS
32.5%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.5%
1-0
12.3%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.7%
Match Context
SERCritical
Atalanta BC
1.40
Draw
4.80
Hellas Verona
9.25
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Atalanta BC 67.7%
--
Total
3.0
+13.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →