FINAL: Fiorentina 1 — Inter Milan 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Fiorentina 1.2 - Inter Milan 1.8 (Inter Milan at 70.3% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
Fiorentina
1.2
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Inter Milan
1.8
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
FiorentinaDrawInter Milan
Inter Milan L4Fiorentina L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Inter Milan
1.01.82.6
Fiorentina
0.41.22.0
Projected
Fiorentina 1.2 — Inter Milan 1.8
Actual
Fiorentina 1 — Inter Milan 1
Pick Results
UNDER 3.25totalWIN+1.59u
Expected Goals (xG)
Fiorentina1.18
Inter Milan1.76
14.2Shots15.1
5.0On Target6.1
5.5Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.2%
Over 1.5
80.4%
Over 2.5
51.7%
Over 3.5
19.5%
Under 2.5
48.3%
BTTS
36.6%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.1%
0-1
10.9%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
8.8%
0-0
8.5%
Match Context
SERMedium
Fiorentina
16.39
Draw
4.88
Inter Milan
1.27
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Inter Milan 70.3%
--
Total
3.0
+27.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →