Iraq vs France prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects France 2.23 - Iraq 0.59. France is favored with a 79.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
France
2.23
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Iraq
0.59
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
FranceDrawIraq
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 81.8% (1,099 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Iraq
0.00.61.4
France
1.52.23.0
Projected
France 2.23 — Iraq 0.59
Actual
France 3 — Iraq 0
Expected Goals (xG)
France2.23
Iraq0.59
20.5Shots16.4
7.5On Target5.8
6.3Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.4%
Over 1.5
85.3%
Over 2.5
47.9%
Over 3.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.1%
BTTS
62.6%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
15.2%
1-0
13.0%
3-0
11.3%
2-1
9.0%
1-1
8.7%
Match Context
WCHigh
France
1.11
Draw
12.00
Iraq
28.00
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE42.6% WR (n=50)
STRONG AVOID: Extreme home favorite (79.73% model vs 90.09% market) with negative probability edge (-10.36%), violates calibration max-edge ceiling (18%), triggers overconfidence penalty — market is correct to discount model's extreme prediction.
Key Factors
- xG blowout: France 2.23 xGF vs Iraq 0.59 xGA — 1.64 xG/90 gap, elite team vs weak team (catastrophic mismatch)
- Model overconfidence: 79.73% win prob with market priced at 90.09% = model is LESS confident than market despite superior data — unusual red flag
- Calibration violation: Edge gap -10.36% exceeds max-edge ceiling of 18% (actually negative, meaning market has edge). Recent calibration history shows this confidence level performs worst (LOW bucket 58.5% WR < CRITICAL 0% due to sample size)
- Home ML RED zone: 42.6% historical WR — home favorite structure proven loser, especially at extreme probabilities
Risk Factors
- Draw probability 12.03% (unusually low, but still ~1 in 8 outcomes) — means France ML true hit rate = 79.73% × (87.97% non-draw outcomes) = ~70.1% effective win rate, still high but degraded
- Extreme favorite effect: Historical data shows win rate WORSENS as probability increases beyond 68-70%. France at 79.73% would likely perform below 42.6% RED zone average
- Tournament volatility: Iraq 0.59 xGF is dangerously weak, but group-stage pressure, substitution patterns, and tactical parking can trigger upsets even in 0-1 final scores
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
France 79.7%
--
Total
2.8
+40.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →