Iraq vs Senegal prediction for June 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Senegal 2.2 - Iraq 0.85. Senegal is favored with a 69.5% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.1..
Senegal
2.2
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
Iraq
0.85
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SenegalDrawIraq
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.3% (1,107 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Iraq
0.10.81.6
Senegal
1.42.23.0
Projected
Senegal 2.2 — Iraq 0.85
Actual
Senegal 5 — Iraq 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Senegal2.20
Iraq0.85
20.1Shots16.6
7.4On Target5.9
6.2Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.5%
Over 1.5
84.4%
Over 2.5
56.4%
Over 3.5
43.4%
Under 2.5
43.6%
BTTS
62.5%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
11.8%
2-1
10.0%
1-0
10.0%
1-1
9.8%
3-0
8.6%
Match Context
WCHigh
Senegal
1.25
Draw
7.00
Iraq
12.10
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE43.4% WR (n=50)
Senegal is a classic tournament PUBLIC LOCK: market prices 80% win (1.25 odds = -400) but model gives only 69.49%, a -10.51% probability edge AGAINST the favorite. The massive 2.2 xG to 0.85 xG gap suggests dominance, yet 17.71% draw probability absorbs expected value. Iraq as a 12.81% underdog with draw risk is a heavy dog trap. Both sides are profitability failures; HARD SKIP recommended.
Key Factors
- Senegal ML edge: Model 69.49% vs market 80% — margin -10.51%, the LARGEST disagreement on the slate
- Senegal at 1.25 is a maximum overvalued favorite for a tournament match with 17.71% draw probability
- xG dominance: Senegal 2.2 vs Iraq 0.85 (1.35 gap, largest of all 4 games), yet model only gives 69.49% win (not 75-80%)
- Draw probability: 17.71% — tournament context means Iraq will defend desperately, steal a point in 1 in 5-6 matches
- Zone confirmation: Home ML in 70%+ range is YELLOW (43.4% WR) — historically poor, contradicting high probability
Risk Factors
- Senegal at -400 is a public lock bet — casual money on the favorite inflates odds artificially. This is where sharp money fades the line.
- Model shows -10.51% edge AGAINST Senegal, unusual for a team with 2.2 xG at home. This suggests model correctly identifies tournament variance risk the public is ignoring.
- Iraq's +4.55% edge is a trap: 12.81% + 17.71% draw = only 30.52% probability of Iraq win+draw favorable outcomes; true value is minimal
HOME FAVORITE TRAPMARKET OVERCONFIDENT FAVORITEPUBLIC LOCKHEAVY UNDERDOG TRAPDRAW RISKHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Senegal 69.5%
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Total
3.1
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →