Lazio vs AS Roma prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects AS Roma 1.85 - Lazio 1.25. AS Roma is favored with a 57.8% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.1..
AS Roma
1.85
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
Lazio
1.25
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
AS RomaDrawLazio
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.6% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lazio
0.51.22.0
AS Roma
1.11.92.6
Projected
AS Roma 1.85 — Lazio 1.25
Actual
AS Roma 2 — Lazio 0
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Roma1.84
Lazio1.23
19.6Shots14.9
7.3On Target5.2
6.2Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.8%
Over 1.5
82.5%
Over 2.5
54.1%
Over 3.5
53.4%
Under 2.5
45.9%
BTTS
51.2%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.9%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
8.5%
Match Context
SERDerbyMedium
AS Roma
1.52
Draw
4.30
Lazio
6.77
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
AS Roma 57.8%
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Total
3.1
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →