FINAL: Napoli 2 — Lecce 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Napoli 1.78 - Lecce 1.15 (Napoli at 66.2% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.9..
Napoli
1.78
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Lecce
1.15
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
NapoliDrawLecce
LecceNapoli W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 81.0% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lecce
0.41.11.9
Napoli
1.01.82.6
Projected
Napoli 1.78 — Lecce 1.15
Actual
Napoli 2 — Lecce 1
Pick Results
OVER 2.25totalWIN+1.04u
Expected Goals (xG)
Napoli1.75
Lecce1.13
17.0Shots12.7
6.5On Target4.5
5.7Corners5.2
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.5%
Over 1.5
78.9%
Over 2.5
48.7%
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 2.5
51.3%
BTTS
32.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.2%
1-0
12.3%
2-0
9.6%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
9.2%
Match Context
SERHigh
Napoli
1.45
Draw
4.40
Lecce
9.00
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Napoli 66.2%
--
Total
2.9
+20.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →