Lecce vs Sassuolo prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Sassuolo 1.55 - Lecce 1.25. Sassuolo is favored with a 38.5% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
Sassuolo
1.55
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Lecce
1.25
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SassuoloDrawLecce
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.9% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lecce
0.51.22.0
Sassuolo
0.81.62.3
Projected
Sassuolo 1.55 — Lecce 1.25
Actual
Sassuolo 2 — Lecce 3
Expected Goals (xG)
Sassuolo1.54
Lecce1.20
16.8Shots14.3
6.2On Target5.0
5.6Corners5.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.4%
Over 1.5
78.0%
Over 2.5
53.9%
Over 3.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
46.1%
BTTS
50.5%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
14.0%
1-0
13.0%
0-0
11.9%
0-1
9.9%
2-0
8.6%
Match Context
SERCritical
Sassuolo
2.77
Draw
3.23
Lecce
2.80
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Sassuolo 38.5%
--
Total
2.8
+13.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →