Lille vs AS Monaco prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects AS Monaco 2.11 - Lille 1.75. AS Monaco is favored with a 50.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.9..
AS Monaco
2.11
Projected Goals
VS
3.9 total
Lille
1.75
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
AS MonacoDrawLille
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lille
1.01.82.5
AS Monaco
1.32.12.9
Projected
AS Monaco 2.11 — Lille 1.75
Actual
AS Monaco 0 — Lille 1
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Monaco1.39
Lille1.08
29.3Shots23.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
98.0%
Over 1.5
90.0%
Over 2.5
56.2%
Over 3.5
54.4%
Under 2.5
43.8%
BTTS
78.0%
Match Context
LIGMedium
AS Monaco
2.59
Draw
3.77
Lille
2.66
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
AS Monaco 50.4%
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Total
3.9
+17.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →