FINAL: Marseille 1 — Lille 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Marseille 1.97 - Lille 1.46 (Lille at 36.9% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.4..
Marseille
1.97
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
Lille
1.46
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
MarseilleDrawLille
Lille W5Marseille
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 88.9% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lille
0.71.52.2
Marseille
1.22.02.7
Projected
Marseille 1.97 — Lille 1.46
Actual
Marseille 1 — Lille 2
Pick Results
OVER 2.75totalWIN+1.06u
Expected Goals (xG)
Marseille1.94
Lille1.44
18.4Shots14.9
7.2On Target5.5
6.0Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.2%
Over 1.5
86.7%
Over 2.5
66.8%
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 2.5
33.2%
BTTS
49.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.5%
1-2
7.1%
2-0
7.0%
1-0
7.0%
Match Context
LIGHigh
Marseille
2.69
Draw
2.07
Lille
4.87
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lille 36.9%
--
Total
3.4
+79.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →