FINAL: Rennes 1 — Lille 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Rennes 1.71 - Lille 1.42 (Lille at 70.2% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.1..
Rennes
1.71
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
Lille
1.42
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
RennesDrawLille
Lille W5Rennes
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lille
0.61.42.2
Rennes
0.91.72.5
Projected
Rennes 1.71 — Lille 1.42
Actual
Rennes 1 — Lille 2
Pick Results
OVER 2.5totalWIN+0.46u
Expected Goals (xG)
Rennes1.68
Lille1.40
16.6Shots14.7
6.3On Target5.4
5.6Corners5.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.1%
Over 1.5
82.7%
Over 2.5
54.9%
Over 3.5
23.1%
Under 2.5
45.1%
BTTS
45.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.2%
Match Context
LIGMedium
Rennes
23.49
Draw
8.44
Lille
1.13
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lille 70.2%
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Total
3.1
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →