Liverpool vs Aston Villa prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Aston Villa 1.44 - Liverpool 1.99. Liverpool is favored with a 54.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.4..
Aston Villa
1.44
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
Liverpool
1.99
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Aston VillaDrawLiverpool
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.0% (1,052 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Liverpool
1.22.02.8
Aston Villa
0.71.42.2
Projected
Aston Villa 1.44 — Liverpool 1.99
Actual
Aston Villa 4 — Liverpool 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Aston Villa0.81
Liverpool1.30
21.1Shots27.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.7%
Over 1.5
86.3%
Over 2.5
52.7%
Over 3.5
45.0%
Under 2.5
47.3%
BTTS
71.4%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Aston Villa
2.97
Draw
3.55
Liverpool
2.44
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Liverpool 54.3%
--
Total
3.4
+14.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →