Liverpool vs Manchester United prediction for May 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Manchester United 1.47 - Liverpool 1.79. Liverpool is favored with a 52.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
Manchester United
1.47
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Liverpool
1.79
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Manchester UnitedDrawLiverpool
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Liverpool
1.01.82.6
Manchester United
0.71.52.2
Projected
Manchester United 1.47 — Liverpool 1.79
Actual
Manchester United 3 — Liverpool 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Manchester United1.42
Liverpool1.74
17.7Shots18.0
6.1On Target6.8
5.9Corners5.9
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.0%
Over 1.5
84.1%
Over 2.5
57.4%
Over 3.5
22.4%
Under 2.5
42.6%
BTTS
32.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.1%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
7.2%
3-1
5.0%
Match Context
EPLHigh
Manchester United
2.41
Draw
3.87
Liverpool
2.82
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Liverpool 52.3%
--
Total
3.3
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →