Lorient vs Metz prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Metz 1.92 - Lorient 1.64. Metz is favored with a 45.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.6..
Metz
1.92
Projected Goals
VS
3.6 total
Lorient
1.64
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
MetzDrawLorient
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lorient
0.91.62.4
Metz
1.11.92.7
Projected
Metz 1.92 — Lorient 1.64
Actual
Metz 0 — Lorient 4
Expected Goals (xG)
Metz1.22
Lorient0.95
28.2Shots22.1
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.4%
Over 1.5
87.1%
Over 2.5
53.6%
Over 3.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
46.4%
BTTS
73.9%
Match Context
LIGMedium
Metz
3.16
Draw
3.70
Lorient
2.26
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Metz 45.4%
--
Total
3.6
+14.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →