FINAL: Celta Vigo 1 — Lyon 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Celta Vigo 1.45 - Lyon 1.5 (Celta Vigo at 66.2% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.9..
Celta Vigo
1.45
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Lyon
1.5
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Celta VigoDrawLyon
Lyon L5Celta Vigo
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 81.0% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lyon
0.71.52.3
Celta Vigo
0.71.42.2
Projected
Celta Vigo 1.45 — Lyon 1.5
Actual
Celta Vigo 1 — Lyon 1
Pick Results
OVER 2.25totalLOSS-1.00u
Expected Goals (xG)
Celta Vigo1.43
Lyon1.46
15.0Shots13.3
5.5On Target5.2
5.5Corners5.2
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.3%
Over 1.5
80.0%
Over 2.5
48.9%
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 2.5
51.1%
BTTS
50.5%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.3%
1-2
8.6%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
0-0
7.7%
Match Context
UELHigh
Celta Vigo
1.24
Draw
4.45
Lyon
29.98
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE58.0% WR (n=29)
Lyon are the UEL GROUP LEADERS (7W-0D-1L, 21pts) with elite UEL stats (2.25 GF/90, 0.625 GA/90) and a 87.5% win rate; while all ML zones are RED, the model's 2.93 total vs 2.5 market line creates a meaningful over edge in a GREEN zone (58.0% WR), and both teams' attacking profiles (Lyon 2.25 GF/90, Celta 1.8 GF/90 in UEL) support a high-scoring game.
Key Factors
- Lyon UEL elite stats: 2.25 GF/90, 0.625 GA/90, 87.5% WR — group leaders in the entire UEL tournament
- Model total: 2.93 vs market line 2.50 — +0.43 goal edge; over 2.5 in GREEN zone (58.0% WR, 29 bets)
- Both teams' UEL xG: Lyon away 2.0 GF/90, Celta home 1.8 GF/90 — both sides are genuine attacking threats
- Celta Vigo La Liga form: 10W-10D-7L (40pts, 6th in LAL standings) — mid-table, motivated but inconsistent
- Lyon Ligue 1: 4th place (46pts, 14W-4D-7L) — strong domestic form DLLWW recently; UEL form far superior (WWWLWWWW)
Risk Factors
- Celta injuries: Starfelt, Alonso, Duran, Aidoo, Carreira, Ristic all OUT — depleted defense may actually help the over
- Draw probability 23.02% — Lyon may play conservatively away to protect clean sheet for second leg
- Market total of 2.5 is tight; a 0-0 or 1-0 in a cautious European first leg would kill the over
OVER VALUEGREEN ZONEUCL STAKESFORM GAPDIRECTION CONFIRMEDHIGH SCORING LEAGUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Celta Vigo 66.2%
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Total
2.9
+160.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →