Lyon vs Toulouse prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Toulouse 1.67 - Lyon 1.69. Lyon is favored with a 31.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.4..
Toulouse
1.67
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
Lyon
1.69
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
ToulouseDrawLyon
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lyon
0.91.72.5
Toulouse
0.91.72.4
Projected
Toulouse 1.67 — Lyon 1.69
Actual
Toulouse 2 — Lyon 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Toulouse0.99
Lyon1.03
23.5Shots22.9
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.4%
Over 1.5
85.0%
Over 2.5
51.9%
Over 3.5
43.8%
Under 2.5
48.1%
BTTS
72.0%
Match Context
LIGMedium
Toulouse
4.29
Draw
3.98
Lyon
1.83
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lyon 31.6%
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Total
3.4
+18.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →