FINAL: CA Osasuna 2 — Mallorca 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CA Osasuna 1.83 - Mallorca 1.15 (Mallorca at 46.6% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
CA Osasuna
1.83
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Mallorca
1.15
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
CA OsasunaDrawMallorca
Mallorca L4CA Osasuna
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Mallorca
0.41.11.9
CA Osasuna
1.11.82.6
Projected
CA Osasuna 1.83 — Mallorca 1.15
Actual
CA Osasuna 2 — Mallorca 2
Pick Results
OVER 2.25totalWIN+0.48u
Expected Goals (xG)
CA Osasuna1.80
Mallorca1.14
17.4Shots12.8
6.7On Target4.6
5.6Corners5.2
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.9%
Over 1.5
80.9%
Over 2.5
46.9%
Over 3.5
23.2%
Under 2.5
53.1%
BTTS
33.2%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.0%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.0%
0-0
6.6%
Match Context
LALCritical
CA Osasuna
5.18
Draw
3.06
Mallorca
1.86
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mallorca 46.6%
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Total
3.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →