FINAL: Elche CF 2 — Mallorca 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Elche CF 1.74 - Mallorca 1.19 (Mallorca at 37.3% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.9..
Elche CF
1.74
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Mallorca
1.19
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Elche CFDrawMallorca
Mallorca L4Elche CF
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.5% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Mallorca
0.41.22.0
Elche CF
1.01.72.5
Projected
Elche CF 1.74 — Mallorca 1.19
Actual
Elche CF 2 — Mallorca 1
Pick Results
OVER 2.25totalWIN+0.42u
Expected Goals (xG)
Elche CF1.71
Mallorca1.16
16.6Shots12.9
6.4On Target4.6
5.5Corners5.2
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.5%
Over 1.5
80.0%
Over 2.5
49.7%
Over 3.5
19.5%
Under 2.5
50.3%
BTTS
35.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.3%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.9%
0-0
7.2%
Match Context
LALMedium
Elche CF
2.54
Draw
2.47
Mallorca
3.84
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mallorca 37.3%
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Total
2.9
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →