Metz vs Nice prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Nice 1.94 - Metz 1.24. Nice is favored with a 66.5% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.2..
Nice
1.94
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
Metz
1.24
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
NiceDrawMetz
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 88.9% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Metz
0.51.22.0
Nice
1.21.92.7
Projected
Nice 1.94 — Metz 1.24
Actual
Nice 0 — Metz 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Nice1.91
Metz1.21
19.1Shots14.2
7.4On Target5.1
5.6Corners5.2
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.7%
Over 1.5
84.1%
Over 2.5
54.8%
Over 3.5
52.5%
Under 2.5
45.2%
BTTS
50.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.0%
2-0
8.9%
0-0
6.1%
Match Context
LIGCritical
Nice
1.32
Draw
5.92
Metz
9.24
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Nice 66.5%
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Total
3.2
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →