Napoli vs Como prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Como 1.66 - Napoli 1.32. Napoli is favored with a 40.9% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Como
1.66
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Napoli
1.32
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
ComoDrawNapoli
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Napoli
0.51.32.1
Como
0.91.72.4
Projected
Como 1.66 — Napoli 1.32
Actual
Como 0 — Napoli 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Como1.63
Napoli1.31
17.1Shots14.8
6.3On Target5.3
5.9Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.0%
Over 1.5
80.8%
Over 2.5
50.7%
Over 3.5
19.1%
Under 2.5
49.3%
BTTS
31.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.2%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.3%
2-0
8.1%
Match Context
SERHigh
Como
2.56
Draw
2.45
Napoli
4.00
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Napoli 40.9%
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Total
3.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →