Napoli vs Pisa prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Pisa 1.15 - Napoli 1.96. Napoli is favored with a 61.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.1..
Pisa
1.15
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
Napoli
1.96
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
PisaDrawNapoli
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 97.9% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Napoli
1.22.02.7
Pisa
0.41.11.9
Projected
Pisa 1.15 — Napoli 1.96
Actual
Pisa 0 — Napoli 3
Expected Goals (xG)
Pisa1.13
Napoli1.89
13.9Shots18.8
4.8On Target7.2
5.3Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.6%
Over 1.5
82.6%
Over 2.5
54.2%
Over 3.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
45.8%
BTTS
51.0%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.6%
0-1
12.6%
0-0
10.5%
0-2
9.3%
1-2
8.8%
Match Context
SERCritical
Pisa
8.67
Draw
4.86
Napoli
1.39
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Napoli 61.6%
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Total
3.1
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →