Newcastle United vs Fulham prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Fulham 1.35 - Newcastle United 1.92. Newcastle United is favored with a 39.8% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
Fulham
1.35
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Newcastle United
1.92
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
FulhamDrawNewcastle United
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.4% (1,081 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Newcastle United
1.11.92.7
Fulham
0.61.42.1
Projected
Fulham 1.35 — Newcastle United 1.92
Actual
Fulham 2 — Newcastle United 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Fulham1.33
Newcastle United1.88
15.7Shots19.5
5.5On Target7.3
5.6Corners5.9
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.1%
Over 1.5
83.9%
Over 2.5
54.9%
Over 3.5
52.8%
Under 2.5
45.1%
BTTS
51.6%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.3%
1-2
9.4%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
6.8%
0-1
6.7%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Fulham
2.61
Draw
3.74
Newcastle United
2.66
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Newcastle United 39.8%
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Total
3.3
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →