Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Nottingham Forest 1.56 - Newcastle United 1.42. Nottingham Forest is favored with a 37.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Nottingham Forest
1.56
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Newcastle United
1.42
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Nottingham ForestDrawNewcastle United
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.5% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Newcastle United
0.61.42.2
Nottingham Forest
0.81.62.3
Projected
Nottingham Forest 1.56 — Newcastle United 1.42
Actual
Nottingham Forest 1 — Newcastle United 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Nottingham Forest0.91
Newcastle United0.77
19.9Shots18.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.9%
Over 1.5
79.8%
Over 2.5
56.9%
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 2.5
43.1%
BTTS
65.5%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Nottingham Forest
4.01
Draw
2.47
Newcastle United
2.51
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Nottingham Forest 37.7%
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Total
3.0
+112.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →