Norway vs Ivory Coast prediction for June 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Ivory Coast 1.29 - Norway 1.57. Norway is favored with a 43.8% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
Ivory Coast
1.29
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Norway
1.57
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Ivory CoastDrawNorway
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.3% (1,107 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Norway
0.81.62.3
Ivory Coast
0.51.32.1
Projected
Ivory Coast 1.29 — Norway 1.57
Actual
Ivory Coast 1 — Norway 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Ivory Coast1.29
Norway1.57
20.9Shots18.3
7.6On Target6.6
6.6Corners6.2
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
99.2%
Over 1.5
85.2%
Over 2.5
48.1%
Over 3.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
51.9%
BTTS
63.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.6%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.1%
Match Context
WCCritical
Ivory Coast
3.63
Draw
3.53
Norway
2.16
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE33.6% WR (n=55)
Model and market are closely aligned on Norway away ML (+43.75% model vs 46.30% market implied). Away ML is RED zone (33.6% WR); model edge negligible (-2.55%). CRITICAL stakes likely tighten play (fewer goals), supporting Under slightly but not enough to override model uncertainty.
Key Factors
- Away ML RED zone: SOCCER|ml|away|any|any|any at 33.6% WR (55 tracked bets, z=-2.56, significant negative). Current away ML testing worse than home ML.
- Model-market gap NEGATIVE: Model 43.75% win prob vs market 46.30% — market is MORE confident on Norway. This reversal of typical underpricing suggests market is correct here.
- Draw at 25.38%: Eliminates 1 in 4 outcomes. Away ML requires win, not draw.
- xG gap modest: Norway +0.28 xG (1.57 vs 1.29) — quality advantage but not elite. Ivory Coast threat present.
Risk Factors
- CRITICAL stakes likely mean tight, low-scoring affair. Model total 2.85 vs market 2.50 suggests even model expects Under-leaning game. Over 2.5 only 48.06% in model.
- Away underdog in WC knockout/late-stage group likely facing sustained pressure. Defensive setup favors Under, contradicting minimal total edge.
- Market confidence HIGHER than model (46.30% vs 43.75%) suggests sharp money is on Norway. If this is true, Norway may be overpriced for bet value.
DRAW RISKRED ZONEAWAY ML REDCRITICAL STAKESMODEL MARKET ALIGNMENT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Norway 43.8%
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Total
2.9
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →