Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Manchester United 2.09 - Nottingham Forest 1.36. Manchester United is favored with a 55.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.4..
Manchester United
2.09
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
Nottingham Forest
1.36
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Manchester UnitedDrawNottingham Forest
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.1% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Nottingham Forest
0.61.42.1
Manchester United
1.32.12.9
Projected
Manchester United 2.09 — Nottingham Forest 1.36
Actual
Manchester United 3 — Nottingham Forest 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Manchester United2.06
Nottingham Forest1.34
21.0Shots15.8
8.0On Target5.6
6.2Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.6%
Over 1.5
86.8%
Over 2.5
55.3%
Over 3.5
53.1%
Under 2.5
44.7%
BTTS
51.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
6.4%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Manchester United
1.63
Draw
4.34
Nottingham Forest
5.18
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Manchester United 55.6%
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Total
3.4
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →