FINAL: Levante 4 — Oviedo 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Levante 1.53 - Oviedo 1.32 (Levante at 65.5% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.9..
Levante
1.53
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Oviedo
1.32
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
LevanteDrawOviedo
Oviedo L5Levante
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 81.0% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Oviedo
0.51.32.1
Levante
0.81.52.3
Projected
Levante 1.53 — Oviedo 1.32
Actual
Levante 4 — Oviedo 2
Pick Results
OVER 2.25totalWIN+0.93u
Expected Goals (xG)
Levante1.50
Oviedo1.31
15.0Shots13.8
5.7On Target5.1
5.3Corners5.2
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.5%
Over 1.5
79.1%
Over 2.5
49.8%
Over 3.5
18.4%
Under 2.5
50.2%
BTTS
32.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.7%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
7.7%
0-1
7.6%
Match Context
LALCritical
Levante
1.32
Draw
4.26
Oviedo
15.28
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Levante 65.5%
--
Total
2.9
+88.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →