FINAL: Nice 0 — Paris Saint Germain 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Nice 1.24 - Paris Saint Germain 1.61 (Paris Saint Germain at 70.0% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.8..
Nice
1.24
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Paris Saint Germain
1.61
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
NiceDrawParis Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain W4Nice
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Paris Saint Germain
0.81.62.4
Nice
0.51.22.0
Projected
Nice 1.24 — Paris Saint Germain 1.61
Actual
Nice 0 — Paris Saint Germain 4
Pick Results
UNDER 3.25totalLOSS-1.00u
Expected Goals (xG)
Nice1.22
Paris Saint Germain1.62
14.3Shots14.2
5.1On Target5.6
5.4Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.2%
Over 1.5
78.3%
Over 2.5
49.9%
Over 3.5
18.4%
Under 2.5
50.1%
BTTS
49.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.2%
Match Context
LIGHigh
Nice
14.12
Draw
5.59
Paris Saint Germain
1.24
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Paris Saint Germain 70.0%
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Total
2.8
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →