FINAL: Fiorentina 0 — Parma 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Fiorentina 1.47 - Parma 1.23 (Fiorentina at 27.1% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.7..
Fiorentina
1.47
Projected Goals
VS
2.7 total
Parma
1.23
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
FiorentinaDrawParma
ParmaFiorentina L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Parma
0.51.22.0
Fiorentina
0.71.52.2
Projected
Fiorentina 1.47 — Parma 1.23
Actual
Fiorentina 0 — Parma 0
Pick Results
UNDER 2.5totalWIN+0.44u
Expected Goals (xG)
Fiorentina1.41
Parma1.24
14.9Shots13.3
5.6On Target4.9
5.5Corners5.2
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.3%
Over 1.5
76.1%
Over 2.5
33.6%
Over 3.5
18.3%
Under 2.5
66.4%
BTTS
32.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
14.0%
1-0
11.1%
0-0
10.7%
0-1
10.3%
2-1
7.9%
Match Context
SERMedium
Fiorentina
4.49
Draw
1.35
Parma
10.50
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fiorentina 27.1%
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Total
2.7
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →