FINAL: Como 5 — Pisa 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Como 2.04 - Pisa 1.27 (Como at 69.1% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.3..
Como
2.04
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Pisa
1.27
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
ComoDrawPisa
Pisa L5Como
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Pisa
0.51.32.0
Como
1.32.02.8
Projected
Como 2.04 — Pisa 1.27
Actual
Como 5 — Pisa 0
Pick Results
OVER 2.75totalWIN+0.90u
Expected Goals (xG)
Como2.06
Pisa1.23
18.7Shots13.6
7.5On Target5.0
5.7Corners5.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.9%
Over 1.5
85.0%
Over 2.5
62.1%
Over 3.5
23.9%
Under 2.5
38.0%
BTTS
48.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.6%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
10.0%
2-0
9.8%
0-0
6.6%
Match Context
SERCritical
Como
1.13
Draw
7.67
Pisa
28.34
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Como 69.1%
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Total
3.3
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →