Pisa vs Lazio prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Lazio 1.92 - Pisa 1.09. Lazio is favored with a 53.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Lazio
1.92
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Pisa
1.09
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
LazioDrawPisa
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.1% (1,114 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Pisa
0.31.11.9
Lazio
1.11.92.7
Projected
Lazio 1.92 — Pisa 1.09
Actual
Lazio 2 — Pisa 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Lazio1.94
Pisa1.07
19.2Shots13.4
7.4On Target4.6
5.6Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.8%
Over 1.5
81.0%
Over 2.5
53.9%
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 2.5
46.1%
BTTS
50.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
12.9%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
9.4%
Match Context
SERCritical
Lazio
1.75
Draw
3.90
Pisa
4.87
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lazio 53.3%
--
Total
3.0
+5.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →