Pisa vs Lazio prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Lazio 1.92 - Pisa 1.09. Lazio is favored with a 53.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Lazio
1.92
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Pisa
1.09
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
LazioDrawPisa
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.8% (1,080 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Pisa
0.31.11.9
Lazio
1.11.92.7
Projected
Lazio 1.92 — Pisa 1.09
Actual
Lazio 2 — Pisa 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Lazio1.94
Pisa1.07
19.2Shots13.4
7.4On Target4.6
5.6Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.8%
Over 1.5
81.0%
Over 2.5
53.9%
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 2.5
46.1%
BTTS
50.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
12.9%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
9.4%
Match Context
SERCritical
Lazio
1.75
Draw
3.90
Pisa
4.87
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lazio 53.3%
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Total
3.0
+5.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →