Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Alavés 1.62 - Rayo Vallecano 1.72. Alavés is favored with a 38.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
Alavés
1.62
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Rayo Vallecano
1.72
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
AlavésDrawRayo Vallecano
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.4% (1,114 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Rayo Vallecano
0.91.72.5
Alavés
0.81.62.4
Projected
Alavés 1.62 — Rayo Vallecano 1.72
Actual
Alavés 1 — Rayo Vallecano 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Alavés1.61
Rayo Vallecano1.67
18.1Shots18.5
6.6On Target6.8
6.0Corners6.0
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.4%
Over 1.5
85.8%
Over 2.5
55.0%
Over 3.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
45.0%
BTTS
52.0%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.4%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.6%
0-1
6.5%
Match Context
LALMedium
Alavés
2.58
Draw
3.29
Rayo Vallecano
2.98
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alavés 38.4%
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Total
3.3
+15.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →