Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Alavés 1.62 - Rayo Vallecano 1.72. Alavés is favored with a 38.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
Alavés
1.62
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Rayo Vallecano
1.72
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
AlavésDrawRayo Vallecano
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 68.0% (1,080 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Rayo Vallecano
0.91.72.5
Alavés
0.81.62.4
Projected
Alavés 1.62 — Rayo Vallecano 1.72
Actual
Alavés 1 — Rayo Vallecano 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Alavés1.61
Rayo Vallecano1.67
18.1Shots18.5
6.6On Target6.8
6.0Corners6.0
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.4%
Over 1.5
85.8%
Over 2.5
55.0%
Over 3.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
45.0%
BTTS
52.0%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.4%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.6%
0-1
6.5%
Match Context
LALMedium
Alavés
2.58
Draw
3.29
Rayo Vallecano
2.98
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alavés 38.4%
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Total
3.3
+15.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →