FINAL: Barcelona 1 — Rayo Vallecano 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Barcelona 2.4 - Rayo Vallecano 0.86 (Barcelona at 69.5% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.3..
Barcelona
2.4
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Rayo Vallecano
0.86
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
BarcelonaDrawRayo Vallecano
Rayo VallecanoBarcelona W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Rayo Vallecano
0.10.91.6
Barcelona
1.62.43.2
Projected
Barcelona 2.4 — Rayo Vallecano 0.86
Actual
Barcelona 1 — Rayo Vallecano 0
Pick Results
UNDER 3.5totalWIN+0.97u
Expected Goals (xG)
Barcelona2.41
Rayo Vallecano0.86
18.8Shots12.1
8.0On Target4.0
6.0Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.1%
Over 1.5
84.9%
Over 2.5
56.7%
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 2.5
43.3%
BTTS
32.0%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
10.9%
2-1
10.1%
1-1
9.6%
1-0
9.4%
3-0
8.0%
Match Context
LALHigh
Barcelona
1.22
Draw
7.50
Rayo Vallecano
13.50
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Barcelona 69.5%
--
Total
3.3
+24.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →