Rayo Vallecano vs Getafe prediction for May 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Getafe 1.2 - Rayo Vallecano 1.39. Rayo Vallecano is favored with a 39.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.6..
Getafe
1.2
Projected Goals
VS
2.6 total
Rayo Vallecano
1.39
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
GetafeDrawRayo Vallecano
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.5% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Rayo Vallecano
0.61.42.2
Getafe
0.41.22.0
Projected
Getafe 1.2 — Rayo Vallecano 1.39
Actual
Getafe 0 — Rayo Vallecano 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Getafe1.18
Rayo Vallecano1.37
13.4Shots15.2
4.8On Target5.5
5.2Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
93.7%
Over 1.5
73.4%
Over 2.5
26.7%
Over 3.5
14.2%
Under 2.5
73.3%
BTTS
31.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.7%
0-1
10.4%
1-0
9.7%
0-0
9.5%
1-2
8.2%
Match Context
LALMedium
Getafe
2.09
Draw
3.07
Rayo Vallecano
4.47
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rayo Vallecano 39.7%
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Total
2.6
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →