RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.66 - RB Leipzig 1.49. RB Leipzig is favored with a 44.0% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.1..
Bayer Leverkusen
1.66
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
RB Leipzig
1.49
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Bayer LeverkusenDrawRB Leipzig
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 88.9% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
RB Leipzig
0.71.52.3
Bayer Leverkusen
0.91.72.4
Projected
Bayer Leverkusen 1.66 — RB Leipzig 1.49
Actual
Bayer Leverkusen 4 — RB Leipzig 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Bayer Leverkusen1.67
RB Leipzig1.48
17.6Shots14.4
6.5On Target5.4
6.0Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.9%
Over 1.5
82.9%
Over 2.5
53.6%
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 2.5
46.4%
BTTS
53.5%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
9.2%
2-1
8.5%
2-2
7.4%
1-2
7.3%
3-1
5.7%
Match Context
BUNHigh
Bayer Leverkusen
2.02
Draw
3.72
RB Leipzig
3.54
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
RB Leipzig 44.0%
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Total
3.1
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →