RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects SC Freiburg 2.03 - RB Leipzig 1.31. SC Freiburg is favored with a 59.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
SC Freiburg
2.03
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
RB Leipzig
1.31
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SC FreiburgDrawRB Leipzig
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.2% (1,053 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
RB Leipzig
0.51.32.1
SC Freiburg
1.32.02.8
Projected
SC Freiburg 2.03 — RB Leipzig 1.31
Actual
SC Freiburg 4 — RB Leipzig 1
Expected Goals (xG)
SC Freiburg1.34
RB Leipzig0.67
34.3Shots14.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.7%
Over 1.5
85.1%
Over 2.5
51.9%
Over 3.5
43.0%
Under 2.5
48.1%
BTTS
67.9%
Match Context
BUNMedium
SC Freiburg
2.44
Draw
3.51
RB Leipzig
2.80
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Duplicate Freiburg vs Leipzig. Model 59.6% home, 1.34-0.67 xG (+0.67). Market 41.0% home implied. Totals 3.34 vs 2.75 market = +0.59 edge (~17% raw, capped to 8%). Tier mismatch clear but edge marginal after calibration.
RED ZONELOW EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SC Freiburg 59.6%
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Total
3.3
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →