FINAL: Lorient 2 — RC Lens 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Lorient 1.58 - RC Lens 1.6 (RC Lens at 42.9% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.2..
Lorient
1.58
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
RC Lens
1.6
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
LorientDrawRC Lens
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 88.9% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
RC Lens
0.81.62.4
Lorient
0.81.62.4
Projected
Lorient 1.58 — RC Lens 1.6
Actual
Lorient 2 — RC Lens 1
Pick Results
OVER 2.5totalWIN+0.83u
Expected Goals (xG)
Lorient1.55
RC Lens1.59
15.9Shots14.2
6.0On Target5.6
5.6Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.2%
Over 1.5
83.4%
Over 2.5
49.8%
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 2.5
50.2%
BTTS
47.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.9%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
6.4%
Match Context
LIGMedium
Lorient
2.38
Draw
2.97
RC Lens
3.30
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
RC Lens 42.9%
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Total
3.2
+14.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →