Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Sevilla 1.0 - Real Madrid 2.18. Real Madrid is favored with a 51.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.2..
Sevilla
1.0
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
Real Madrid
2.18
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SevillaDrawReal Madrid
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 97.9% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Real Madrid
1.42.23.0
Sevilla
0.21.01.8
Projected
Sevilla 1.0 — Real Madrid 2.18
Actual
Sevilla 0 — Real Madrid 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Sevilla0.97
Real Madrid2.17
14.3Shots19.5
4.7On Target7.8
5.5Corners6.1
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.1%
Over 1.5
83.8%
Over 2.5
54.8%
Over 3.5
52.5%
Under 2.5
45.2%
BTTS
50.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.5%
1-2
10.0%
0-2
8.6%
0-1
8.2%
1-3
6.7%
Match Context
LALMedium
Sevilla
3.73
Draw
3.85
Real Madrid
2.00
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Real Madrid 51.6%
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Total
3.2
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →