Real Sociedad vs Espanyol prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Espanyol 1.87 - Real Sociedad 1.44. Espanyol is favored with a 45.8% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
Espanyol
1.87
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Real Sociedad
1.44
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
EspanyolDrawReal Sociedad
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.6% (1,080 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Real Sociedad
0.71.42.2
Espanyol
1.11.92.6
Projected
Espanyol 1.87 — Real Sociedad 1.44
Actual
Espanyol 1 — Real Sociedad 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Espanyol1.85
Real Sociedad1.43
19.1Shots16.3
7.3On Target5.9
5.7Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.6%
Over 1.5
85.0%
Over 2.5
55.0%
Over 3.5
52.8%
Under 2.5
45.0%
BTTS
51.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.5%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.3%
Match Context
LALMedium
Espanyol
2.18
Draw
3.69
Real Sociedad
3.35
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Espanyol 45.8%
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Total
3.3
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →