FINAL: Nice 0 — Rennes 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Nice 1.56 - Rennes 1.38 (Rennes at 70.2% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.9..
Nice
1.56
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Rennes
1.38
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
NiceDrawRennes
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Rennes
0.61.42.2
Nice
0.81.62.3
Projected
Nice 1.56 — Rennes 1.38
Actual
Nice 0 — Rennes 4
Pick Results
UNDER 3.75totalLOSS-0.50u
Expected Goals (xG)
Nice1.54
Rennes1.36
15.6Shots14.5
6.0On Target5.3
5.5Corners5.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.9%
Over 1.5
80.4%
Over 2.5
48.4%
Over 3.5
21.9%
Under 2.5
51.6%
BTTS
40.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
7.7%
2-0
6.7%
Match Context
LIGMedium
Nice
20.74
Draw
8.36
Rennes
1.13
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rennes 70.2%
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Total
2.9
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →