Sassuolo vs Parma prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Parma 1.42 - Sassuolo 1.43. Sassuolo is favored with a 34.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
Parma
1.42
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Sassuolo
1.43
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
ParmaDrawSassuolo
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 74.6% (1,081 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Sassuolo
0.71.42.2
Parma
0.61.42.2
Projected
Parma 1.42 — Sassuolo 1.43
Actual
Parma 1 — Sassuolo 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Parma1.40
Sassuolo1.38
16.0Shots15.6
5.8On Target5.6
5.5Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.1%
Over 1.5
78.1%
Over 2.5
54.1%
Over 3.5
51.7%
Under 2.5
45.9%
BTTS
50.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.9%
0-1
10.5%
0-0
10.0%
1-0
9.9%
1-2
8.1%
Match Context
SERMedium
Parma
3.17
Draw
2.62
Sassuolo
2.81
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Sassuolo 34.6%
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Total
2.8
+43.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →