Sevilla vs Celta Vigo prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Celta Vigo 1.67 - Sevilla 1.29. Celta Vigo is favored with a 48.1% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Celta Vigo
1.67
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Sevilla
1.29
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Celta VigoDrawSevilla
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.2% (1,080 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Sevilla
0.51.32.1
Celta Vigo
0.91.72.4
Projected
Celta Vigo 1.67 — Sevilla 1.29
Actual
Celta Vigo 1 — Sevilla 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Celta Vigo1.65
Sevilla1.26
17.8Shots15.1
6.6On Target5.3
5.8Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.8%
Over 1.5
79.2%
Over 2.5
53.8%
Over 3.5
53.1%
Under 2.5
46.2%
BTTS
57.0%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.4%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
8.2%
0-0
6.9%
Match Context
LALMedium
Celta Vigo
2.00
Draw
3.49
Sevilla
4.11
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Celta Vigo 48.1%
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Total
3.0
+10.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →