Sunderland vs Everton prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Everton 1.4 - Sunderland 1.58. Everton is favored with a 50.0% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Everton
1.4
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Sunderland
1.58
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
EvertonDrawSunderland
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.1% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Sunderland
0.81.62.4
Everton
0.61.42.2
Projected
Everton 1.4 — Sunderland 1.58
Actual
Everton 1 — Sunderland 3
Expected Goals (xG)
Everton1.37
Sunderland1.54
15.6Shots16.7
5.6On Target6.2
5.4Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.2%
Over 1.5
79.8%
Over 2.5
53.9%
Over 3.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.1%
BTTS
50.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.6%
1-0
8.8%
0-1
8.5%
0-0
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Everton
1.88
Draw
3.70
Sunderland
4.51
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Everton 50.0%
--
Total
3.0
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →