Torino vs Cagliari prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Cagliari 1.3 - Torino 1.66. Cagliari is favored with a 40.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Cagliari
1.3
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Torino
1.66
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
CagliariDrawTorino
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.9% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Torino
0.91.72.4
Cagliari
0.51.32.1
Projected
Cagliari 1.3 — Torino 1.66
Actual
Cagliari 2 — Torino 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Cagliari1.27
Torino1.63
15.1Shots17.9
5.3On Target6.6
5.5Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.1%
Over 1.5
80.3%
Over 2.5
54.4%
Over 3.5
51.9%
Under 2.5
45.6%
BTTS
50.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.5%
0-1
9.3%
1-0
9.0%
0-0
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
Match Context
SERMedium
Cagliari
2.40
Draw
3.07
Torino
3.51
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Cagliari 40.3%
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Total
3.0
+25.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →