Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa prediction for May 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Aston Villa 1.55 - Tottenham Hotspur 1.03. Tottenham Hotspur is favored with a 44.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.6..
Aston Villa
1.55
Projected Goals
VS
2.6 total
Tottenham Hotspur
1.03
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Aston VillaDrawTottenham Hotspur
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 88.9% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Tottenham Hotspur
0.31.01.8
Aston Villa
0.81.62.3
Projected
Aston Villa 1.55 — Tottenham Hotspur 1.03
Actual
Aston Villa 1 — Tottenham Hotspur 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Aston Villa1.51
Tottenham Hotspur1.03
16.0Shots13.9
5.9On Target4.7
5.5Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.0%
Over 1.5
74.5%
Over 2.5
26.7%
Over 3.5
14.0%
Under 2.5
73.3%
BTTS
31.6%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
9.3%
2-0
8.1%
0-0
7.5%
Match Context
EPLCritical
Aston Villa
2.21
Draw
3.74
Tottenham Hotspur
3.25
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Tottenham Hotspur 44.4%
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Total
2.6
+51.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →