Toulouse vs Strasbourg prediction for May 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Strasbourg 1.85 - Toulouse 1.16. Toulouse is favored with a 22.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Strasbourg
1.85
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Toulouse
1.16
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
StrasbourgDrawToulouse
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Toulouse
0.41.21.9
Strasbourg
1.11.92.6
Projected
Strasbourg 1.85 — Toulouse 1.16
Actual
Strasbourg 1 — Toulouse 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Strasbourg1.82
Toulouse1.12
18.2Shots13.1
6.9On Target4.6
5.7Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.9%
Over 1.5
80.6%
Over 2.5
26.2%
Over 3.5
24.3%
Under 2.5
73.8%
BTTS
51.0%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
8.8%
2-0
8.3%
1-2
6.6%
Match Context
LIGMedium
Strasbourg
5.06
Draw
1.59
Toulouse
4.49
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Toulouse 22.7%
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Total
3.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →